I’ve been kind of inspired by Michael’s predictions for 2008. I thought it was quite a fun read to see how close he was to his predictions for 2007…and the point system was a nice touch. So, knowing a good idea when I see it, I thought I would give this a try…so here we go:
1. WARHAMMER: Will come out in the summer of 2008, not the spring. Yes, I think we’ve got one more delay to go before we see this thing come out. It will be a big hit, but like all releases it will have it’s issues. The first issue will be server stress. I don’t think they’ll have the infrastructure to handle the demand and we’ll see the forums full of queue complaints and other “wait in line” issues. I also think that by the end of the summer, some will start to wonder what the big deal was, but most will be having a great time with it.
2. Conan: This one won’t do as well as some think it will, but it will get the niche market that it was looking for. It will not be the “mature” title for adults only and will probably have one of the most frustrating General Chat channels to date. I’m almost willing to bet that this one doesn’t get released until 2009. It will not be pretty for Conan if it releases anywhere near Warhammer. The reason they’ll give for the delay? Of course….polish.
3. WoW: The next expansion will be announced for Q4 2008. This expansion has kind of bugged me. I think Blizzard is holding back on something…big time. Looking at the details of the expansion that we know of right now, it’s more of the same formula and I have to keep telling myself that this can’t be it. Also, WoW’s numbers will start to go down in a very measurable way.
4. Tabula Rasa: Will be the big winner of 2008, despite the release of Warhammer and Conan. This game is just fun. By the end of 2008, this game will have the benefit of either an expansion or several free content patches…or both. Word of warning: TR has the monumental task of fighting to keep it’s players from going to Warhammer…not just going to Warhammer, but staying and not coming back. I think they will pull it off. I will also reach max level with this game.
5. Vanguard. I’m still very hopeful for this title. In fact, I will also put Vanguard as a winner for 2008. By end of 2008, I think we’ll see a) the player base grow by 100-150%, b) more staff put on it, c) it be a place to go for EQ/EQ2 players. By that time…gawd…I’m hoping the character models are completely redone. Vanguard will see it’s “relaunch” in 2008.
6. At least 5 more MMO titles will be announced for 2008, most will be sci-fi…we’ll only really care about one of them. *cough* Bioware *cough*
7. The Star Trek IP will be taken away from Perpetual (…or whatever the the f^%$ they call themselves now…) and given to someone who actually knows and cares about the license.
8. Out of all the new studios that were formed this year, none will go under but all will be going to the mat with the hype machine. We’ll be excited, but guardedly so.
9. Brad McQuaid will say something about what happened with Vanguard and Sigil in an interview. His journey back to the MMO scene will slowly begin in 2008. Wow…this prediction is waaaaay out there.
10. Agency will be the first and only microtransaction title that anyone will care about in 2008. I will still probably not be sold on the idea. 2008 will be a rough year for this model in North America.
11. I will still not like Anime (…heh…had to give myself a chance of getting at least one point…).
12. Jumpgate: Evolution will be the sleeper hit of 2008.
…and following Michael’s style of winners and loosers:
Winners for 2008: Warhammer, Vanguard, Tabula Rasa, Jumpgate
Losers for 2008: Conan, WoW, Anime, RMT/Microtransactions
D out
Entries (RSS)
December 31st, 2007 at 12:57 pm
13. Darren will learn the difference between loose and lose which is what he always means!
Ya know, other than the drama and perhaps bringing belatedly bringing closure on his behalf, do we even care about The Brad anymore? Not that I ever did anyway, but… just look at the comments from the latest SUWT. VG followed the same cycle and mentality as EQ1, eight years later. He didn’t learn from his first go, and sorry but EQ1 was luck not talent. Brad got the “Rock Star” ego just like John Romero did a few years ago, and crashed and burned far more spectacularly than Romero.
Having said that, I do think the new VG team has some good ideas (and some not-so-good, we’ll see if they listen to their customers for a change) and 2008 might be a turnaround year for VG. On the other hand, I’ve always said the MMO crowd is extremely fickle and unforgiving, and I don’t get the impression that many of us are willing to give second chances. Even after Tabula Rasa surprised us
December 31st, 2007 at 1:12 pm
I desperately hope TR does stick out and get the recognition is deserves. I also hope that Conan has a more than TR type of sales and reviews. I want a fantasy game that dares to try something different with its gameplay to be huge… if only because then we’ll see more people trying something new. I’m also looking forward to playing it on my 360 whenever it makes it out. I’m warming up to MMOs on the console now that I have one that can pull it off.
As for the rest of the predictions, couldn’t say it better myself, really. Happy New Year, Darren. See you in 2008.
December 31st, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Your predictions all sound likely, and your arguments make sense. I’m looking forward to Jumpgate myself, but I think you underestimate how well The Agency will do, at least initially. The MMORPG market DESPERATELY needs a new genre, and this spy/action hybrid seems to be a refreshing way to cleanse the pallet. Happy New Year!
December 31st, 2007 at 2:04 pm
damnit on the spelling Talyn…fixed.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:57 pm
[...] finally, do I do what the cool kids are doing a list out some more predictions for 2008? I will have to see what I can pull out of [...]
December 31st, 2007 at 3:27 pm
10 Predictions for 2008…
I will jump in on this as well here and offer up a few of my thoughts for the coming year. These are in no particular order.
1) The STO license will stay with Perpetual as long as they keep their heads above water money wise. New announce…
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am
For the most part, I agree with most of your predictions. I HATE RMTs and usually attribute this to my lack of foresight as to how they can be done right. I favor the subscription model but know there are alternatives. But hey, the cable industry has been using the subscription model for close to 30 years now and that doesn’t seem to be going the way of the horse-and-buggy.
I find my excitement for AoC and WAR kind of waning. I’m still very enthusiastic about both these titles but I’m kind of tired of being cockteased (pardon my French) for the past year plus. I wish Funcom and Mythic would just quietly get to work on kicking ass rather than acting like blowhards and painting themselves into a corner when their games will more likely than not just turn out to be two really solid, fun fantasy MMOs and not the second coming.
The only thing I really disagree with you on is Vanguard. It’s not a bad game. But it had no staying power for me. The things that are unique about the game (diplomacy, seamless world) aren’t things that are strong enough to make it the fantasy MMO I’m going to sink time into each week. It doesn’t have the PvP options of WoW, the dazzling style of LoTRO, and well, EQ2 does just about everything Vanguard does but better from what I’ve read. I almost wonder if Sony’s acquistion of Sigil was leading to the day where they “transition” a large chunk of Vanguard’s player base to EQ2 and then keep the game running with maintenence patches and a tiny team, a la Matrix Online.
January 14th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
[...] can scratch this one off of the predictions list. I’m on fire ladies and gents….probably from being full of [...]
January 14th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
[...] Everyone’s doing it, so I figured I’d give it a go too. I can’t wait till I see how right I am at the end of the year. (And if I’m wrong, it’s only one click to delete and rewrite history anyway, so I figure this is a win-win situation). [...]
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